txt. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022. 2. 1 min read 7th Dec 2020 2 answers No comments. Learn how PredictIt works, how to join the community, and how to access the latest news, analysis, and insights from PredictIt's experts and partners. datatable). Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. S. Like Miller, many of the top speculators on PredictIt are political junkies who win money with a mix of savvy and speed. org for free in terms of their online performance: traffic sources, organic keywords, search rankings, authority, and much more. USBets: “PredictIt users are not taking the forced cessation of their political prediction market lying down, as some of the site’s traders and academic users and its market technology provider Aristotle International filed a federal lawsuit Friday against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). PredictItPredictIt is a platform where you can make predictions on political events and trade shares based on their outcomes. PredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research. “This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in the insights they provide. Recommendation for a good international event betting site like predictit. Your global no limit betting exchange. Who will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination? PredictIt is a prediction market that lets you bet on the outcome of political events. Introduction. Screenshot via PredictIt. New research shows that the best way to improve overall predictive accuracy is by aggregating the forecasts from the best forecasters in a group. Lawyers for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) submitted a new document to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals on June 28, drawing the court’s attention to a recent Supreme Court decision. As of Wednesday morning, DeSantis picks were 40 cents, while Trump bets were down to 31, in the market. In addition to the claims about the university’s and Aristotle’s relationship, the CFTC also claims that 17 markets offered on PredictIt violated the no-action letter’s terms. 01 to $0. TradeFair is an online trading platform that provides a secure, fast, and easy way to trade stocks, ETFs,. Bitcoin. NEW. Discover the full list of predictit. provider of data processing and verification services. since 2014. In order to enable researchers to take advantage of the opportunities presented by prediction markets, we make our data available to the academic community at no cost. e. Regarding the variety in markets offered, Kalshi definitely stands out for offering a wider range of markets for users to participate in. org alternatives Like 0 electionbettingodds. Most sports betting sites offer lucrative promos to their customers such as no deposit bonus and so does PredictIt. PredictIt Market Probabilities. A screen capture of PredictIt. Jennings revealed that the election event has. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Predictit takes 10% of all your winnings plus 5% of all your withdrawals. Commodity Futures Trading. PredictItIn the 2014 PredictIt approval letter, 3 the CFTC analyzed the applicant’s facts and circumstances and based approval on conditions such as capping investment and trading volumes, being operated. Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, reportedly arranged a $130,000 payment to silence Daniels about an alleged affair with Trump. The site has become a mainstay in virtually all election discussions, alongside political projections from sites like FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics. Per PredictIt’s no-action letter, PredictIt users cannot make more than $850 in any position. There's a large community of open source developers that would gladly develop small modules around the Predict It data. A maximum of 5,000 people in one market. PredictItPredictItPredictItAs prediction markets like PredictIt gain exposure in mainstream political media, trader-determined odds in high-visibility markets often get reported on by media outlets and amplified to the public. I think you would be better off building something on top of Augur. PredictItsites for prediction,By 2022, it had 80,000 active s, which was a combination of both casual bettors and those that took politics very seriously. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The agency rejected a 2012 proposal by the North American Derivatives Exchange (NADE) on the basis that the proposed. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Embed Package Health Score Badge. # 1. After the market resolves, redeem your winning shares for $1 each. according to forecasting site PredictIt. org in July 2023 are ranked by their affinity to predictit. Santos didn’t just like watching the demigods who inhabited that world; he had dreams of that kind of fame for himself. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. PredictIt was told to shutter in the U. No Bitcoin support. ”. Using artificial intelligence, predictIT automatically generates overviews and insights that helps the Project Manager to manage the project. This prevents a handful of wealthy individuals from putting down thousands of. S. Products. Santos didn’t just like watching the demigods who inhabited that world; he had dreams of that kind of fame for himself. CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 28: Traders in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index options pit at the. PredictIt and Betfair as of Tuesday morning at 11 a. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. While markets like PredictIt meet the demand of those who want to speculate on political outcomes, they also accommodate businesses that seek to hedge against adverse consequences from such outcomes. To put it simply, PredictIt allows customers to trade “yes” and “no” shares on the outcomes of future political events at prices ranging from $0. Washington, DC, 20003, United States. . com Analytics and market share drilldown here. The agency rejected a 2012 proposal by the North American Derivatives Exchange (NADE) on the basis that the proposed. random. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. Candidate. Whether it is U. 3%: $882,928. Well, because of the Sandwich bot issue, I couldn't be bothered to figure out how to bridge funds & LP via a relayer as some roundabout way to actually place bets (which was an intermediate way the team found to avoid the bots, but wasn't exactly the best UI) while my crypto experience extended to having some play-funds on Aave & more reading than. Far and away the most popular market on PredictIt sees the current governor of Florida, DeSantis, favored over the former president at the equivalent of a +144 price (to Trump’s +194). F. PredictIt’s non-profit status has allowed it to operate legally by obtaining a no-action letter from the CFTC, the U. Do you think your real competition will come from new sites or existing ones like PredictIt? Cardenas: PredictIt took the same legal approach as Intrade, except they obtained a letter of “No. Predictit, the most often referenced one, has a fee structure that makes it horribly inefficient: they take 10% of all winnings on a given bet and 5% of all withdrawals from the site. com election betting odds by maxim lott and john stossel live. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Election odds currently have Joe Biden at +138. S. CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam shared insights on the future of regulated prediction markets like Kalshi during a recent panel discussion. Now if we buy No shares on every candidate, we get into a situation (at least currently) where we profit no matter who wins. . Learn more. Aristotle is the contract service provider for the PredictIt Market, which has operated under No-Action Relief CFTC 14-130 since 2014. Advertisement Harry Crane is a professor of statistics at Rutgers. 12K subscribers in the Augur community. PolyMarket is an “information markets platform” that allows traders to use the Polygon blockchain to make bets on the outcome of events. Well, because of the Sandwich bot issue, I couldn't be bothered to figure out how to bridge funds & LP via a relayer as some roundabout way to actually place bets (which was an intermediate way the team found to avoid the bots, but wasn't exactly the best UI) while my crypto experience extended to having some play-funds on Aave & more reading than using in general. PredictIt is a research. ”PredictItOn average Trump gets ~5. Do not assume that Internet gaming sites are in compliance with the rules and regulations of every jurisdiction from which they accept players. Our Customers. Yale astrophysicist Greg Laughlin launched the site a year ago with physicist Anthony Aguirre of the University of California-Santa Cruz and their former postdoc Max Wainwright. AD Users are able to bet on events, such as 2024 nominations for president and whether marijuana becomes federally rescheduled this year, using bank deposits or a credit card, but PredictIt also accepts cryptocurrency. Global Traffic Rank. Based on my experience thus far, however, I have no reason to believe PredictIt is anything other than what they claim to be– a legal nonprofit with a background in. I am literally at risk for $44 in the general election market, but that does not allow me to continue to trade. In 2016, they, like most everyone else, thought Hillary Clinton would become president. Today's most actual and recent Forex Forecasts. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. org for free in terms of their online performance: traffic sources, organic. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM. BetMoose is a peer-to-peer betting website that allows users to bet on anything and accept or create bets with. org Competitors. Menu. PredictIt is closing due to CFTC changing its mind. PredictIt, which has been provided by Victoria University of Wellington since. com is Direct traffic, driving 83. com at 2012-04-02T14:30:48Z (11 Years, 7 Days ago) , expired at 2025-04-02T14:30:48Z (1 Year, 357 Days left). According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. Pennsylvania: John Fetterman vs. Reply [-] aphyer 3y 4. The top traffic source to marginalrevolution. Betfair, which this site uses, does not have that problem; their odds add up to about 100%. Join PredictIt today and test your political savvy. predictions_1 = predictit. Additionally, the site charges a 5% fee to withdraw money. No. Mehmet Oz This is a highly. The various markets — PredictIt, the Iowa market, overseas markets like Betfair in Britain and predecessors like the Irish sites Intrade and Tradesports — have. S. org Competitors. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Like Miller, many of the top speculators on PredictIt are political junkies who win money with a mix of savvy and speed. This is a list of sites where you can bet on politics. When/if PredictIt's odds become more efficient and get close to 100%, this site's main page will include the odds. Augur is a blockchain-based platform owned by its users. is on the verge of being shut down—even though studies suggest that such markets may predict elections better than polls do. A world-leading political predictions market led by a New Zealand university is set to close its doors after American regulators concluded it was breaching its terms of operation. 3. It was the leading platform for individuals to bet on the. 15, 2023 unless they resolve sooner under their respective market rules. PredictIt is currently offering shares in Biden being the nominee for 68 cents, meaning a trader who bought a share would earn 32 cents if he is the Democratic candidate in 2024, which is likely. Discover the ultimate resource for Predictit – your one-stop destination for free, easy, and fast information!. Drill down into the main traffic drivers in each channel below. Posted onAugust 5, 2022 by Yves Smith. In that case, our account is credited with the lowest such profit. 01 to $0. A week before Election Day, she was a 75% favorite. In Trump's first year in office, PredictIt's population of traders has grown to 80,000 from 50,000 as the White House deals political junkies a litany of new policy, personnel and, yes, Twitter. PredictIt 65. users that “the security of trader funds will not be affected by this action,” and that it’ll keep going until. Find out why - Click here to Analyze all competitors Not only is it largely unenforceable, but, particularly on sites like PredictIt that have an academic purpose, one of the very reasons prediction markets are of interest to researchers is because their prices reflect not only public information but also “scattered private information held by traders. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" By Maajid Nawaz "In Order To Live" By Yeonmi Park: About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minutePredictItFor its part, PredictIt “maintains that all open markets are within the terms of the . Help companies get their products out by using our site. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has revoked a letter it sent last year to PredictIt organizers that vacated its. Even while it lasts, PredictIt is not perfect; an $850-per-contract betting limit imposed by regulation means that long-shots are systematically overvalued on PredictIt. If I don't get my favorable outcome, at least I'll make some money. to say that an event or action will happen in the future, especially as a result of knowledge or…. org top alternatives and find potential or emerging competitors. “The CFTC action taken on Aug. View election betting odds for those candidates and more below. The site is an excellent alternative or complement to online political betting markets. org Brags and Beats. I propose developing a read only API that allows people to track markets and have Apps, widgets, and email alerts without you having to develop them yourselves. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. ) are legal. ”. Shares can be. 44-2. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. com (202) 903-4221 The agency said the university had agreed PredictIt would be operated by itself or its professors, but Aristotle Inc. TradeFair is an online trading platform that provides a secure, fast, and easy way to trade stocks, ETFs,. PredictIt is not a gambling site like overseas sports betting parlors Paddy Power and Betfair, which offer some betting on elections. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It’s like a stock market where you buy and sell $1 winner- take- all shares, where two people…Headquarters Location. Predictit's top competitors include Kalshi, Consensus Point, and Augur. Ensure all the packages you're using are healthy and well-maintained. TOP LINE Politics is full of bold, outlandish predictions. We need more platforms like PredictIt to operate markets and promote discussion on events of public interest, not fewer. A share on PredictIt settles at $1 if the listed event comes to pass and $0 if it doesn’t, and its price fluctuates somewhere in the middle meanwhile. 01:26 John Aristotle Phillips: It sounds like a lot. wider elections, the stock market, the real estate market, etc. That’s an essential reprieve with the original Feb 15 shutdown deadline now less than three weeks away. S. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" 4: Investment Interest Rate/Time Value of Money. com is ranked #0 in the Unknown category and #7041165 globally in June 2023. PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Unlike those betting sites, PredictIt operates in a similar manner to the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), offering investors the opportunity to trade predictions on the outcomes of a wide variety of political events. It reads:PredictIt, a nonprofit exchange that limits speculation to $850 per event, is the most accessible site for Americans. Gambling platform PredictIt has been told to shut up shop by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for failure to comply with regulations. 37 for Democrats to win, . Please feel free suggest more sites in the comments section and they will be added to the list. 2022 Election Predictors Show Political Gambling Market’s ‘Real Limitations’. If lots of people want to bet on the Democratic side, then that candidate’s price will go up. Looking for brands like Predictit? We've researched the 8 top alternatives to Predictit and summarized the best options here in this Predictit competitors grid. Reply [-] rossry 4y 7. You can upvote and downvote, like on Reddit. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic. PredictIt, a university-owned nonprofit platform for investors to trade. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). report. BetMGM Ontario Election Odds. The turned to PredictIt because it allowed them to place wagers that were a touch more niche than standard bookmakers offered, but now the site is shutting down and will be missed by those s. 99 per share. BetMoose. QAnon—the conspiracy theory that elite Democrats, government officials, and celebrities are part of a cannibalistic, child-sex-trafficking cult, and Donald Trump. 15, 2023 due to the government rescinding a No-Action Letter, which formed the basis for it to operate legally. 2. Yves here. other political & government brands and stores. DraftKings operates a mobile sportsbook in Ireland and has similar odds (-210 for Biden, +160 for Trump). 3 million shares traded on Wednesday morning, according to PredictIt. Similar overlays (for a better user experience) can be built on Augur as well, like eg guesser or STLD. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. High fees along with restrictions blocking automatic. What I don't like about PredictIt is that they charge 5% on withdrawals plus other. The really confident ones can put their money where their mouths are — literally — on political market sites. Alternatively, they could hold onto the shares until after Election Day and get paid out $1 per share for a. The betting odds website "PredictIt" is a joke (Original post) Talking Tom: Mar 2019: OP: Betting markets have proven accuracy. Posted on: August 4, 2022, 08:27h. Loss. [1] PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of. Data. PredictIt is operating under an academic exemption, too, but it has had to fight to retain it. That legal matter involves a No Action letter that the CFTC issued then withdrew in. Before Iowa, Betfair, and competitor PredictIt gave Pete Buttigieg only an 8 percent chance of winning the most state delegate equivalents (which he did, pending a recanvass). We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Accepts American customers. Business Services · District of Columbia, United States · <25 Employees. ”’ 1 million. 3: Polls. The site has become a mainstay in virtually all. Unlike those betting sites, PredictIt operates in a similar manner to the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), offering investors the opportunity to trade predictions on the outcomes of a wide variety of political events. org - Top 45 predictit. 24 Tuesday, with over half of that drop coming in the past week, amid a bizarre and. 202-543-8345. The site slightly favors Clinton to win North Carolina, while giving an edge to Trump in Florida. users in February, according to an order from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. DeSantis’ numbers have fallen from a peak of $0. BetOnline also has Trump at +160 but Biden at a shorter -180, with money coming in on. PredictIt is an online Other site. Reveal predictit. Similar Sites & predictit. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. We do this to. This article is for subscribers only. Twitter. Predictit's top competitors include Kalshi, Consensus Point, and Augur. Last updated on: August 5, 2022, 10:45h. Yes! Presidential prediction markets – and all prediction markets across most industries (i. e. ). There are other sites that operate like PredictIt. Why did the CFTC withdraw its permission for PredictIt? The CFTC’s conditions included limiting any contract to 5,000 traders and an $850 investment per trade, that the market would only be used. What that meant, essentially, is the CFTC allowed. Judge Stuart Duncan penned the majority opinion, with Judge James Ho. A screen capture of PredictIt. November. withdrew its permission in August 2022, and ordered the site to shut down, saying it had. GameStop Moderna Pfizer Johnson & Johnson AstraZeneca Walgreens Best Buy Novavax SpaceX Tesla. “Florida legislator asks if a site like @PredictIt would be illegal in the state under Compact. PredictItFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis is now the frontrunner on PredictIt for both the Republican nomination and to win the presidency in 2024. Forecastr is a. Users can purchase shares of an outcome, like buying "Yes" or "No" shares of whether or not the Farm Bill will pass by June 30. PredictIt is a prediction platform restricted to US citizens or those who bother using a VPN. Unlike the prices in. Number of elections simulated each hour. See how Predictit compares to similar products. A larger, rival betting site, Kalshi, which takes bets on things like inflation rates and the price of gasoline, now wants to take election bets, too. 3%: $1,329,129. The various markets — PredictIt, the Iowa market, overseas markets like Betfair in Britain and predecessors like the Irish sites Intrade and Tradesports — have had plenty of glitches through. And indeed, FiveThirtyEight. 01 to $0. org, you can try to predict political events and win money while doing so. November 7 11:50 a. com. On the 2022 campaign trail he once joked in. PredictIt currently charges a 10% fee on profits made by buying and selling shares to cover the site's operating costs, and there is an $850 limit on how much of any one contract a person can hold. Low $850 cap on maximum position in a contract. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. predict(data=np. Analyze any website or app. PredictItHeadquarters Location. The only such market of any size in the U. Consequential issues, […](Disclaimers: I work in the financial industry, though not in a way related to prediction markets. DETROW: John Aristotle Phillips is PredictIt's CEO. Compare your predictions with other traders and see how the market reacts to news and events. ”. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. The PredictIt exchange is similar to a stock exchange, where traders can buy or sell up until the event in question – such as the 2024 presidential election – concludes. Most of these don’t actually process real-money trades from their members, and those that do – namely PredictIt – have been excluded from the oversight of US gambling. So the site will only charge us $0. PredictIt has an $850 limit on any one market, for any one candidate or other potential outcome. You can buy and sell shares of candidates and parties, and earn money if your predictions are correct. # 108,710 6,054 Country Rank. The C. . There are two problems here. Oz holds a 57% chance at 538 of beating John Fetterman, but is a 59% favorite at PolyMarket, and an even bigger . Just as companies like Robinhood and DraftKings have capitalized on the gamification of day trading and dearth of entertainment while millions found themselves stuck at home and in need of a distraction from the pandemic, PredictIt has benefited from an unprecedented election cycle. Unless the odds are exactly 50%, the toss-up color is not used in this map. We examine individual-level trading data from several markets in the PredictIt exchange to determine what strategies correlate with financial success. PredictIt and Victoria University use the results from the market for statistical analysis, market theory, and trader psychology, and as supporting data for research papers and analyses. PredictIt traders, academic users and market technology provider Aristotle. PredictIt 16. Traditional prediction markets like PredictIt and Kalshi use US dollars for the trading of outcomes and distribution of profits. The. org – basically, an options market for elections – is based out of Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, and has been legally operating in America since 2014 under a “no-action” letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Division (CFTC), based out of Washington, D. 1: People who bet. Prediction markets like PredictIt and Futuur reflect an additional layer of abstraction on top of publicly available data such as the polls analysis by FiveThirtyEight. Free mathematical football predictions and scores for today matches. US President Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Tracker. The site is now in danger of being shut down by government regulators. Sites similar to predictit. Frontpage. PredictIt. PredictIt and Aristotle, which is the parent company for PredictIt, have said they must start work soon on a system that would allow them to settle contracts for a value between $1 and zero cents. org competitors and alternatives. Republicans win. agency in charge of regulating online betting. PredictItThis isn’t the first time the CFTC has come down on markets like PredictIt. Looks like predictit is missing a Code of Conduct. One example is BetFair, which is predominantly for sports betting. provider of data processing and verification services. Forecasting is a public good, providing information to the public. 99 each) have traded on the presidential election market. com is the website with the highest similarity score to predictit. 85. PredictIt is structurally inefficient. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. S. According to Nate Silver’s site, this election is still close to a tossup, whereas the wagering on PredictIt suggests it’s all but decided. m. by Feb. Of course, spoofing requires spending money to buy shares, with no guarantee of profit, but this can be a small price to pay for this supposed. users that “the security of trader funds will not be affected by this action,” and that it’ll keep going until. PredictIt: . wider elections, the stock market, the real estate market, etc. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Rules and limits Victoria University of Wellington secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, eliminating the risk of prosecution for illegal. Accepts American customers. PredictItBy Jacob Stern. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. $25,654. The goal of this project is to develop a tool that can be used to. By Danny Funt. District Court for the Western District of Texas asking the Commodity. It’s a web site the place you could possibly place bets and win cash on political outcomes. More From DraftKings Network. John Aristotle Philips, founder of the political wagering site PredictIt, appeared on Michael Smerconish's CNN show Saturday morning to discuss how the US Government is trying to shut. Business, Economics, and Finance. electoral-vote. Follow the latest trends, insights and analysis from PredictIt's community of traders and experts. 205 Pennsylvania Avenue SE . Donald Trump is +150, and Michelle Obama is +1600. The site is now selling shares — taking bets on future political events — for 10. November. PredictIt remains highly regulated and constrained by the terms of its agreement with the CFTC: Users can’t trade more than $850 on an individual bet, and there can be no more than 5,000 traders. randn(100, 2), predicted_column=1, predicts=3) There are only two positional arguments data and predicted_column (because, there is more than a. Fully descriptive writeups. PredictIt essentially functions similar to a stock market. after being granted a No-Action Letter by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). PredictIt, a popular political. Prices for each possible result (usually two possibilities) fluctuate based on market trends. S. “It’s not the platforms that are the policy issue,” he said. Anecdotically, it often has free energy, that is, places where one can earn money by having better probabilities, and where this is not too hard. A smaller political predictions market is Iowa Electronic Markets, at the University of Iowa. . Chart by author The Unwisdom Of Crowds. A smaller political predictions market is Iowa Electronic Markets, at the University of Iowa. org, down from a 2020 high of 57 percent in late. We examine individual-level trading data from several markets to determine what strategies correlate with financial success. Deposit $80 when you open your account and PredictIt will deposit an additional $80. PredictIt Insight is a platform that offers data-driven insights on politics and prediction markets. 2023 of the popular event prediction market, PredictIt. Because of the market's structure, smart money cannot (given the first two reasons) or will not (given the third reason) fix all. Discover the full list of predictit.